Saturday, November 22, 2008

3 Little Pigs

Well, the consumer market has finally moved the Big 3 to face the music. Too bad it's a decade too late. I remember a conversation in New York with two friends, about this time 10 years ago, in which we were discussing how the auto industry - or for that matter, the energy industry - would move toward adopting alternative energy strategies. These people, including myself, were in the oil industry. The ideas went along these lines:
  • Consumers need to drive change, but until they're forced to do so with high fuel prices, they're too complacent.
  • The auto industry could take clues from Europe and Asia regarding fuel economy, and take a leadership position on higher mileage.
  • The auto industry could also drive change by supporting or more proactively developing alternative fuel vehicles.
  • The petroleum industry could take a leadership position by developing alternative fuels, taking advantage of their existing infrastructure and delivery systems. The auto industry and consumer base would follow. The feds were providing strong incentives, in addition to several state suspension of taxes, for just this strategy.
Sad to say it's taken an economic crash, $4.00 a gallon gas, and the brink of bankruptcy for the auto industry to see this reality.

Wonder how long it will take the petrochemical industry?

Full disclosure: I still work in this industry, but may be a minority with this viewpoint. I wouldn't know, because within the industry, it's not widely discussed - alternative fuels are the elephant in the room.